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New Map for Middle East
George Friedman, the founder of Stratfor, and now of Geopolitical Futures has an interesting map of “new” borders in the Middle East. Should something similar or a portion of this prevail how would...
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Oil Speculators
Dana Lyon has a very realistic warning about extreme levels of longs in oil speculators. Dana Lyon’s Tumblr I thought it would be interesting to see if there are any other measures that are less...
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Oil Market Myths
Oil is cheap. Looks to me that oil is about average when adjusted for inflation. John Kemp China is consuming less oil because their economy is slowing and China only buys on dips. ThomsonReuters The...
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Asian Oil Demand
Japan is peaking, as one would expect with an aging society, but India is just starting. India only produces about 1-1.5MM barrels/day. When China began consuming a large amount of oil they were...
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The Potential Biggest White Swan
The world is in period of uncertainty which seems to be the only thing people are certain of. Ever since BREXIT and the Trump election markets have performed differently than expectations. This...
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Oil and Dollar Correlation
Since 2000 the price of oil and the US dollar have been consistently inversely correlated. When is oil rising, the dollar is falling and vice versa. St Louis Fed Fred Prior to the creation of the Euro...
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2017 Trends
After having a month to read many outlooks and reports about the upcoming year I have determined these are the trends I believe will continue for the remainder of 2017. 1. Economic Growth USA – I...
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Canadian Housing – A Different View
Everybody knows that Canada has a housing bubble. Soon it will pop like the American one from the mid-late 2000s. Devastation will follow and it’s why hedge funds and American investors are short...
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Review of 2017 Trends
2017 Trend Outlook In January I wrote about the trends I felt would impact 2017. With the half way point in the year I thought it would be a good exercise to review the trends identified. Economic...
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Yield Curve Stats
Here are some fun statistics. Nothing to do at the rig while they case the hole as its pouring rain here. On average a recession happens 22months AFTER a yield curve inversion. Stocks look more like...
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